The IIE’s 2024 Open Doors report is out, and the headlines are predictable: record-breaking numbers of international students, India overtaking China as the top sender, and a resounding celebration of growth. But beneath the surface of these year-old data lies a more nuanced story—one that doesn’t fit neatly into celebratory press releases.
For one, the report reflects enrollment patterns from the 2023-2024 academic year, but the landscape of international education has shifted dramatically in the months since. Visa rejection rates for Indian students, for instance, have climbed sharply, particularly for those from non-metropolitan regions. The U.S. Department of State has been vocal about tackling fraud, which is necessary, but the approach has created additional hurdles for legitimate students while the reelection of Donald Trump poses additional concerns as we expect a slew of executive orders limiting student mobility. For many aspiring students, the promise of a U.S. education now feels more precarious than ever.
The Trouble with One-Year-Old Numbers
The lag in data publication means that Open Doors often reflects trends from a different reality. For policymakers and university leaders, this creates a dangerous blind spot. While India’s 35% growth in student enrollment is impressive, how many of those students actually made it past their first year? How many faced barriers post-arrival, such as housing shortages, food insecurity, or insufficient campus support for cultural integration? And what do current visa denials say about next year’s pipeline? These questions are far more urgent than cheering on last year’s figures.
The Indian Growth Story: A Double-Edged Sword
India’s rise as the largest source of international students should be celebrated cautiously. Yes, it underscores the strength of India’s middle class and the ambition of its students. But it also reveals a troubling over-reliance on a single market. U.S. universities that aggressively court Indian students without diversifying their international recruitment risk becoming overly dependent on one source country—a vulnerability exposed when visa bottlenecks or geopolitical tensions arise.
Additionally, the overwhelming focus on quantity obscures deeper issues of equity and preparedness. Many students from smaller cities and under-resourced schools in India lack access to the kind of mentorship or career readiness needed to thrive in the competitive U.S. education system. Universities must go beyond recruiting students and invest in ensuring their success, both academically and socially.
A Strategic Imperative for Internationalization
The Open Doors numbers tell us what happened last year, but they don’t answer the critical question: what’s next? If U.S. institutions want to remain competitive, they must think beyond short-term enrollment growth. The need for a strategic internationalization agenda—one that prioritizes diversity, equity, ethics, and partnerships—is more urgent than ever.
• Visa Advocacy: The visa bottleneck has become a persistent barrier to growth. Universities, policy advocates, and industry groups must push for reforms that prioritize legitimate students while combating fraud. Fraudulent practices by unscrupulous agents not only jeopardize students’ futures but also tarnish institutional reputations, making it essential to address the root causes of visa rejections and delays.
• Agency Recruitment Practices: Over-reliance on commission-based agents has created vulnerabilities, including inflated student expectations, misrepresentation, and an overemphasis on admissions at the expense of retention and success. Universities must shift toward transparent, ethical recruitment models that empower students and reduce the risk of exploitation.
• Transfers Out: A growing trend of students transferring to less competitive institutions after arriving in the U.S. highlights the disconnect between recruitment practices and institutional fit. This raises questions about the sustainability of current strategies and the need for a deeper focus on student readiness, retention, and the long-term value of their education.
• Fraud and Misrepresentation: Fraudulent applications and misrepresented student profiles, often facilitated by agents, are on the rise. Institutions must strengthen vetting processes and collaborate with stakeholders to ensure the integrity of their admissions pipelines. This is not just an admissions issue—it’s a reputational one.
• Regional Outreach: The majority of Indian students in the U.S. hail from a handful of urban centers. Expanding recruitment efforts to Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, while offering robust pre-departure training and transparent counseling, can help build a more sustainable pipeline and reach students with fewer resources.
• Diversity in Engagement: Beyond India, universities need to think more holistically about their internationalization strategies. Emerging regions like Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia offer untapped potential, and balanced recruitment efforts will help mitigate over-reliance on any single market. Additionally, engaging with underrepresented demographics, such as women and first-generation students, can foster diversity within incoming cohorts.
To sustain the momentum and address systemic vulnerabilities, U.S. institutions must embrace a strategic, ethical, and student-centric approach to internationalization—one that looks beyond enrollment numbers and builds a foundation for long-term success for both students and institutions.
The Big Picture
Numbers can be misleading when viewed in isolation. The 2024 Open Doors report should not be read as a victory lap but as a starting point for deeper conversations about the challenges ahead. The demand for U.S. education remains strong, but demand alone isn’t enough. Without addressing systemic barriers—visa policies, access to resources, and true cultural integration—growth could stall or even reverse.
International education is not just about numbers. It’s about building bridges, fostering global understanding, and equipping students to navigate a complex, interconnected world. If the sector focuses only on the highs of last year’s data, it risks missing the ground shifting beneath its feet.